An Application Of Distributed Biosphere Hydrological Model For Past Floods Replication (Case Study : Upper Citarum River Basin, West Java)

Nuryanto Sasmito Slamet

Abstract


Banjir sebagai bencana alam banyak menimbulkan kerugian secara ekonomi dan sosial. Banjir yang pernah terjadi mempunyai peran yang vital untuk memahami fenomena banjir pada sungai. Studi terbaru telah menunjukkan pentingnya peran CO2, radiasi matahari dan proses pembentukan awan, dalam proses kejadian banjir di sungai. Dengan tingkat akurasi yang lebih baik pada saat pembentukan awal kejadian banjir, maka debit puncak kejadian banjir dapat disimulasikan secara lebih akurat. Studi ini menunjukkan bahwa Distributed Biosphere Hydrological Model, hasil pengembangan, untuk menirukan kejadian banjir yang pernah terjadi. Input data untuk model sebagian besar dapat diperoleh dari data satelit yang didapatkan secara gratis. Kejadian banjir di Sungai Citarum Hulu tahun 1986 digunakan untuk kalibrasi model sedangkan kejadian banjir 2005 digunakan untuk validasi model. Evaluasi model dilakukan dengan membandingkan data debit harian, ketika kejadian banjir, dan perubahan musim selama setahun untuk dapat menggambarkan satu siklus hidrologi. Evaluasi statistik dan grafik dari debit simulasi dan hasil observasi lapangan menunjukkan kesesuaian yang baik. Nilai Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) ada dalam kisaran 0,47 0,8, Percent BIAS (PBIAS) dalam kisaran -0.26 % 12.67 % dan RMSE-observe standard deviation ratio (RSR) dalam kisaran 0,44 0,67. Penyelidikan pada saat kejadian banjir maksimum tahunan menunjukkan nilai Percent Error in Peak flow rates (PEP) ada dalam kisaran 1.85 % - 3,5 % pada debit maksimum.

Keywords


Banjir, distributed biosphere hydrological model, data satelit.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.32679/jth.v3i1.260

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